Abstract: Forecast uncertainty is a key issue for reservoir operation. Ensemble forecasting can effectively depict forecast uncertainties, but it may increase the computational burden when directly incorporated into a multi-objective reservoir operation model. This paper presents an effective method for deriving multi-objective operating rules by incorporating ensemble forecasting. First, ensemble forecasting samples are reduced to several typical scenarios and their corresponding occurrence probabilities by using a simultaneous backward reduction method. Then, based on the typical scenarios, a multi-objective operation optimization model is constructed to optimize the expected values of reservoir performance indexes. Finally, a parameterization-simulation-optimization framework is adopted to derive multi-objective reservoir operating rules. The Han to Wei interbasin water transfer project in northwest China was selected for a case study. Results show that the proposed method yields effective reservoir operating rules with low computational burden.

Key words: multi-objective optimal operation, forecast uncertainty, ensemble forecasting, operating rules, scenario reduction