Abstract: To make full use of water resources and improve flood utilization under the condition of reasonable assessment of flood control risk, dynamic control of reservoir stage is examined through a case study of the Pankou reservoir. First, we optimize the flood season stage of a reservoir by assuming that its flood storage capacity reserved for the downstream reservoir has an overlapping space, and then use a forecast pre-discharge method to construct a model for estimating the upper limit of the dynamic control domain of reservoir stage. Finally, we focus on the dynamic change in flood forecast period and obtain the dynamic control domain based on risk analysis. Calculations show that in flood season, the reservoir stage can be raised up from 347.60 m to 350.50 m, and its corresponding dynamic stage control domain is [350.50, 351.40] m when considering a range of the flood forecast period of [3, 6] h with an interval of 0.5 h. And the resulting increase in power generation is 19 million kW?h to 25 million kW?h. The study indicates that to consider both flood control safety and water storage comprehensively, the schemes presented in this study are reasonable and feasible to control the stage of the Pankou reservoir in flood season.

Key words: operating water stage, dynamic control, forecast period, Pankou reservoir