水力发电学报
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JOURNAL OF HYDROELECTRIC ENGINEERING ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6): 62-73.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20180607

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Uncertainty analysis of storm water management model using multi-criteria method

  

  • Online:2018-06-25 Published:2018-06-25

Abstract: A multi-criteria uncertainty analysis method for urban rainfall-runoff models is presented in this paper. By integrating multiple objective functions with a distance function, this method can simultaneously consider hydrological factors such as flood peak, flood volume and flood hydrograph. It is applied to the uncertainty analysis of a SWMM model, which is developed for analysis of the Dahongmen drainage area of Beijing. The results show that a single criterion cannot describe the characteristics of urban floods satisfactorily. Comparing with the traditional single criterion method, our multi-criteria method shows advantages not only in assessing prediction bounds, but providing median estimations when coverage rate is close. In calibration, it reduces the bandwidth of uncertainty bounds by 3.57 m3/s and the deviation by 3.04 m3/s; in validation, they are reduced by 3.38 m3/s and 7.25 m3/s respectively.

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