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水力发电学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 82-89.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20160210

• 水力发电学报 • 上一篇    下一篇

高堆石坝施工度汛挡水风险动态控制模型研究

  

  • 出版日期:2016-02-25 发布日期:2016-02-25

Water retaining risk dynamic control model for high rock-fill dams under construction in flood season

  • Online:2016-02-25 Published:2016-02-25

Abstract: Risk control of high rock-fill dam construction in flood season can be achieved by appropriate dam filling schedule. This study has introduced an adaptive control theory to the development of a water retaining risk dynamic control model and the design of control schemes on high rock-fill dam construction. The flood hydrograph is simulated by a first-order autoregressive time series model using measured flood series, and real-time risk can be calculated. Then, the rock-fill dam filling progress is adjusted dynamically by limiting the real-time risk to the accepted risk range, which can be taken as a desired trajectory on account of the risk preference of decision-maker. By such a dynamic adjustment, the real-time risk as entire trajectory will aim to track this desired trajectory to maximum coincidence. Application to a practical case shows that this dynamic control model can effectively control the risk to the expected target and explain why the maximum cost that the decision-maker is willing to pay tends to be stable in late flood season. This study provides support for the progress control and flood protection decision making.

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