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水力发电学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (10): 35-41.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20151005

• 水力发电 • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑不定量历史洪水的水文频率参数贝叶斯估计

  

  • 出版日期:2015-10-25 发布日期:2015-10-25

Parameter estimation in hydrologic frequency analysis using non-quantitative historical flood and Bayesian approach

  • Online:2015-10-25 Published:2015-10-25

Abstract: Consideration of historical flood could improve the accuracy and reliability of flood frequency analysis. In practice, however, some historical floods cannot be quantitated and are difficult to use in a common deterministic methods, thus lowering the reliability of parameter estimation and design flood in the flood frequency analysis. This paper focuses on the coupling of a Bayesian method a maximum likelihood estimator in the frequency analysis using non-quantitative historical floods. This coupling method and its application are demonstrated in a case study of synthetic and measured flood series. Compared to several traditional deterministic method, the coupling method not merely makes it possible to make use of non-quantitative historical floods, but can improve estimation accuracy.

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