Abstract: Low flow is an important component of hydrology. It is inextricably bound to our life and economic activity. But little attention is paid to it compared with flood. Impact analysis of climate change and human activities on water resources is a hot issue of current research. This paper projects the precipitation, temperature and flow of Jinhua river basin during the next 30 years. The main method is Statistical Down Scaling model and Sacramento model. Two low-flow indices 7Q10 and 30Q10 are computed from observed and simulated flows. The results show that 7Q10 and 30Q10 both increase under the two scenarios.