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水力发电学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (3): 109-118.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20250310

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考虑弃真和纳伪问题的压实质量抽样方案优化方法

  

  • 出版日期:2025-03-25 发布日期:2025-03-25

Optimization method for sampling schemes of compaction quality assurance considering false-negative and false-positive problems

  • Online:2025-03-25 Published:2025-03-25

摘要: 我国现行规范体系下,基于计数抽样原理的统计模型是土石坝压实质量保证的常用模型。其中,限定的密度检测抽样不合格率控制值是其核心控制指标。然而,计数抽样统计模型中难以避免地会出现“弃真”、“纳伪”两类统计错误。为强化质量保证,需进一步研究抽样方案的优化问题。考虑施工方与移交方的风险承受能力,本文分别建立了优先保护移交方原则及兼顾双方验收风险控制的统计模型,并给出了基于蒙特卡罗法的实现方案及考虑采样点分布情况的空间布置优化方法。工程案例验证了所提出抽样方案优化方法的可操作性。该优化方法能有效规避两类统计错误及采样点空间自相关性影响,充分保障施工方及移交方的合理权益。

关键词: 施工质量控制, 土石坝, 压实质量, 计数抽样, 样本容量, 优化方法

Abstract: Under the current regulation system, the statistical model based on attribute sampling is a common method for the quality assurance of earth-rockfill dam compaction; its key indicator is the specific threshold of density defect as is usually recommended. However, a statistical model is inevitably faced with two statistical errors-a false-negative problem and a false-positive problem. A careful examination of the optimization method of sampling schemes is necessary for strict quality assurance. This paper develops two improved models based on different risk criteria-featuring in consumers first, and risk balancing of both parties for the risk appetite of contractor and consumer respectively. And a Monte Carlo based simulator is provided, which can achieve significant improvement on attribute sampling by combining with a space optimization algorithm. Application to an engineering case verifies the practical effect of our optimization method. This is a promising method for ensuring the rights and interests of both parties, through reducing the two statistical errors and limiting the impact from the spatial correlation of samples.

Key words: construction quality control, earth-rockfill dam, compaction quality, attribute sampling, sample size, optimization method

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