关键词: 水风光多能互补系统, 极端事件扰动, 韧性三阶段概念模型, 韧性评估, 出力阈值

Abstract: As global climate change intensifies and extreme events occur more frequently, the safe and stable operation of hydro-wind-solar multi-energy complementary systems faces great challenges, necessitating a rational evaluation of the resilience of these systems under extreme event disturbances. This study first elaborates on the complementary characteristics of hydropower, wind, and solar energy, and examines the types of disturbances confronted by these integrated systems. Then, a new concept of resilience for a complementary system is discussed, and a three-stage conceptual model for resilience is developed. Based on this framework, we select monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales and specify power output thresholds for the complementary system, and formulate an evaluation index and methodology for resilience assessment based on power output loss. Finally, to evaluate the resilience, a case study is conducted on a clean energy base in the upper Yellow River. The assessment results validate the effectiveness of the evaluation index and methodology. Notably, hydropower energy demonstrates superior resilience compared to wind and solar power, and the system’s overall resilience is enhanced significantly through utilizing the complementary nature of hydropower, wind, and solar energy. This study helps decision-making for resource allocation, scheduling strategies, and safe operation of integrated hydro-wind-solar energy systems.

Key words: hydro-wind-solar multi-energy complementary system, extreme event disturbances, three-stage conceptual model of resilience, resilience assessment, output threshold value