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水力发电学报

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京津冀地区水-能-粮-碳纽带关系及安全探究

  

  • 出版日期:2024-12-03 发布日期:2024-12-03

Exploring the Water-Energy-Food-Carbon nexus and security in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

  • Online:2024-12-03 Published:2024-12-03

摘要: 为寻求碳中和背景下水-能-粮系统的协同发展,本文从单系统的可靠性、双系统间的协调性及多系统间的可持续性三个维度构建水-能-粮-碳系统安全评价模型,采用改进CRITIC法对2000–2022年京津冀地区水-能-粮-碳系统安全水平进行评估,探究碳排放因素纳入水-能-粮系统前后系统安全的变化规律,同时识别水-能-粮-碳系统安全的主要障碍因子。结果表明:2000–2022年京津冀地区水-能-粮系统安全水平的平均值从0.354上升至0.535;碳排放量纳入系统后,2022年水-能-粮-碳系统安全水平为0.508。2020年碳减排政策实施后,系统安全在一定程度上得到了提升。能源生产弹性系数、废气中SO2排放量、粮食生产波动指数、粮食进出口量差值、民用汽车拥有量以及水力发电比例为共同影响京津冀地区水-能-粮-碳系统安全的主要障碍因子。

Abstract: To achieve the coordinated development of the water-energy-food-carbon system under Carbon Neutrality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, a three-dimensional water-energy-food-carbon security assessment model is constructed. This model considered the reliability within individual systems, coordination between dual systems, and sustainability among multiple systems. In this paper, an improved CRITIC method was utilized to assess the security level of the water-energy-food-carbon system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2022, the changes in system security before and after the inclusion of carbon emission indicators in the water-energy-food system was analyzed, and the obstacles identification in the water-energy-food-carbon system was done. The results indicate an increasing trend in the security level of the water-energy-food coupling system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2022, with the average value rising from 0.354 to 0.535, while the security level of the water-energy-food-carbon system changed to 0.508 in 2022 after the carbon emissions were included in the system. After the implementation of the Carbon Neutrality policy in 2020, the system security was improved to a certain extent. Factors such as energy production elasticity coefficient, food yield fluctuation index, difference between food exports and imports, number of civilian vehicles and proportion of hydroelectricity generation collectively emerge as the primary obstacle factors affecting the security of the water-energy-food-carbon system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

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