关键词: 复杂地质条件, 沥青混凝土心墙坝, 风险识别, 三角模糊层次分析法, 指标重要性评价法, 博弈论

Abstract: To identify the risk of an asphalt concrete core wall dam under complicated geological conditions, this paper develops systematically a risk index system for such dams from three risk dimensions: three high and one deep complicated geological conditions, asphalt concrete core walls, and traditional earth-rock dams. Aimed at the insufficient fusion of subjective and objective information, this paper uses triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (TFAHP) to determine the subjective weight of risk indicators, criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) to determine the objective weight, and game theory (GT) to calculate the optimal combination weight. An intelligent risk identification method of asphalt core wall dams is constructed based on a TFAHP-CRITIC-GT combined weighting model. Case analysis shows that for an asphalt core wall dam, the risk index weight of its complicated geological conditions accounts for 0.52, which is the most important of its risk factors. Therefore, to identify the risk factors of such a dam accurately, it is of great significance to comprehensively consider its complicated geological conditions and the risk of its asphalt core wall. Our index system and identification method would be applicable to the risk identification and evaluation research of water dams under complicated geological conditions in West China.

Key words: complicated geological condition, asphalt concrete core wall dam, risk identification, triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (TFAHP), criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC), game theory (GT)