特约论文： 粤港澳大湾区极端降水的气温响应结构研究

doi:10.11660/slfdxb.20231201

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 分析城市化影响下极端降水对气温的响应结构（P-T关系），有助于制定措施以减少城市地区极端天气相关风险。本文基于粤港澳大湾区（GBA）1970—2019年气温和降水站点观测数据，分析GBA的极端降水指标和极端气温指标的演变结构，通过箱元缩放函数构建不同阈值的极端降水对前一日气温（T1）和前九日气温（T1-9）的响应结构，并探究城市化对P-T关系的影响。结果表明：研究区的P-T关系大致呈极端降水强度随气温增加，极端降水强度先增后减的峰状结构，临界气温约为25℃，这种结构是高温下水汽受限导致的。而城市地区的P-T1关系受台风影响，在T1高于30℃后，极端降水强度再次增加。城市地区极端降水强度平均变率（8.0%/℃~ 12.5%/℃）高于郊区（6.3%/℃~ 8.7%/℃），并超过7%/℃的理论变率。

关键词: 城市化, Clausius-Clapeyron方程, 极端降水, 气温, 粤港澳大湾区

Abstract: The analysis of the response structure of extreme precipitation to temperature (P-T relationship) under urbanization is helpful to develop measures to reduce the risk associated with extreme weather in urban areas. Based on the site observation data of temperature and precipitation in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 1970 to 2019, the long-term evolution structure of extreme temperature and precipitation in GBA was analyzed, and the response structure of extreme precipitation with different thresholds to the temperature of the previous 1-day (T1) and the temperature of the previous 9-day (T1-9) was constructed by using the binning scaling function. The influence of urbanization on the P-T relationship was also explored. The results show that the P-T relationship of GBA generally shows a peak-like structure with the increase of temperature, and the extreme precipitation intensity increases first and then decreases. The breaking temperature is about 25 ℃. This structure is formed by the limited influence of water vapor at high temperature. The P-T1 relationship in urban areas is affected by typhoons, which the extreme precipitation intensity increases again when T1 is higher than 30 ℃. Urban areas of extreme precipitation intensity average scaling rate (8.0%/℃ ~ 12.5%/℃) not only higher than the suburbs (6.3%/℃ ~ 8.7%/℃), and also more than the theory scaling rate (7%/℃).

Key words: urbanization, Clausius-Clapeyron equation, extreme precipitation, temperature, GBA

陈晓宏, 罗佳颖, 罗丹. 特约论文：粤港澳大湾区极端降水的气温响应结构研究[J]. 水力发电学报, 2023, 42(12): 1-13.

CHEN Xiaohong, LUO Jiaying, LUO Dan. Temperature response structure of precipitation extremes in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2023, 42(12): 1-13.

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