Abstract: Traditional schedule risk analysis methods often neglect the effects of two correlations between
risk factors and between activities, and they are unable to analyze risk sensitivity of a project and its
activities. A schedule risk analysis method considering these two kinds of correlations is presented herein.
This method focuses on risk factor states and considers the interaction between correlated risk factors, and it
calculates the distribution of project duration through stochastic modeling of risk factor states. To analyze
schedule risk, a simulation program named C-NETSIMU of the new method has been coded with C# and its
application to a project case is demonstrated. The calculations are compared with those by PERT and Monte
Carlo techniques, which verifies the new method and shows the effects of the two correlations.