关键词: 暴雨洪水, 洪涝风险, 元胞自动机洪水模拟模型, 层次分析法, 客观权重赋权法, 博弈论组合赋权, 深圳河

Abstract: The increasing urban flooding threatens urban safety and sustainable development, and further improvement in the accuracy of urban flood risk simulation and assessment are essential to protect people's lives and properties. In this study, a flood simulation model is developed for the Shenzhen River basin based on a Cellular Automata flood simulation model, and inundation depths are simulated for the design rainfall conditions of this basin. Using the Hazard-Vulnerability risk assessment framework, we consider its different rainfall scenarios and assign weights to its different urban flood risks, through a game theory-based combination of weights determined by the analytic hierarchy process and the Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation methods. Then, its urban flood risks are evaluated and predicted. The results show typical temporal and spatial differences occur over the high-risk areas of urban flooding in the basin. With an increasing rainfall recurrence period, the ratio of the risky area increases, such as from 0.20% of a 2-year rainfall event to 0.82% of a 100-year event; the ratio of the medium-low risk area decreases, such as from 67.4% to 64.7% in terms of the two events. The results of this study can be visualized to show the distribution of flood risks over the basin, helping improve its flood control system and enhance the urban flood prevention capability and resilience of the city.

Key words: storm flood, flood risk, Cellular Automata flood simulation model, analytic hierarchy process, Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation, game-theoretic combination weighting, Shenzhen River