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水力发电学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 11-24.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20230402

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高相对湿度对热浪及寒潮事件的放大效应评估——以嘉陵江流域为例

  

  • 出版日期:2023-04-25 发布日期:2023-04-25

Evaluation of amplification effect of high relative humidity on heat wave and cold wave events. A case study of Jialing River basin

  • Online:2023-04-25 Published:2023-04-25

摘要: 高相对湿度和极端温度具有并发性和持续性,危及人类健康。本文以嘉陵江流域为例,首先基于温度和相对湿度数据计算体感温度,进一步计算热浪指数和寒潮指数,评估流域热浪、寒潮事件的时空分布及风险特征。结果表明1960—2020年期间,嘉陵江流域热浪事件整体上呈现增加趋势,寒潮事件呈现减少趋势。体感热浪指数约为热浪指数的2 ~ 3倍,体感寒潮指数大于相应的寒潮指数,说明该流域高相对湿度能放大热浪与寒潮事件的严重程度,且对热浪的放大效应大于寒潮。通过对回归期(发生概率)的分析,传统的基于最高(低)温度的单变量风险评估方法忽略了相对湿度的影响,会大大低估极端温度事件的风险。

关键词: 相对湿度, 热浪, 寒潮, 体感温度, 嘉陵江流域

Abstract: High relative humidity and temperature extremes can occur simultaneously and persist for periods of time, resulting in severe harm to human health. Here, in the case of the Jialing River basin, we use air temperature and relative humidity from the observed datasets to construct the apparent temperature, and then calculate heat wave indexes and cold wave indexes, so as to evaluate the temporal and spatial distributions and risk characteristics of heat and cold waves. The results show that in the period of 1960 to 2020, the heat waves took an increasing trend, while the cold waves took a significant decreasing trend. The apparent heat wave index was approximately 2-3 times of the corresponding heat wave index, but the apparent cold wave index was slightly greater than the corresponding cold wave index. This indicates that a high relative humidity can amplify the severity of the effect imposed by a heat wave or cold wave event, and the amplification in the heat wave case is greater than that of the cold wave. Through return period analysis, we find the heat (cold) wave severity based on univariate air temperature is severely underestimated owing to the ignorance of relative humidity.

Key words: relative humidity, heat wave, cold wave, apparent temperature, Jialing River basin

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