关键词: 水光互补系统, 中长期优化调度, 弃电风险, 失负荷风险, 调峰

Abstract: It is difficult to consider intraday operational risk, energy curtailment, and peak shaving performance of a traditional medium to long-term operation model for hydro-photovoltaic power system, which results in an overestimation of the hybrid power system’s performance. To address this issue, we construct a series of long short-term response functions for describing the relationships of medium to long-term hydropower output versus operational risk, residual load fluctuation, and electricity curtailment rate. Then, these functions are integrated into a medium to long-term optimization model so as to derive optimal operating rule curves considering intraday operational risk, energy curtailment, and peak shaving. We have applied this method to the Zhongyu hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power system. The results show the optimized operating rule curves increase the energy production (+2.61%) and generation guaranteed rate (from 46.7% to 85.7%) and reduce the residual load fluctuation (-10.0%) and operational risk rate (from 9.51% to 5.43%), compared with the standard policy-based operation model. Thus, our model can significantly increase the utilization of photovoltaic.

Key words: hybrid hydro-photovoltaic power system, medium to long-term operation, energy curtailment risk, power shortage risk, peak shaving