关键词: 水风光互补, 变化环境, 中长期调度, 适应性调度规则, 集合卡尔曼滤波

Abstract: The hydro-wind-solar hybrid power system is an important approach to achieving energy transition and carbon neutrality. Traditional medium- and long-term operation models for such systems ignore the variations in hydropower, wind and solar resources caused by climate change and human activities, so they often formulate operating rules that are static and difficult to adapt to the changing environment. In this work, we adopt an ensemble Kalman filter to study the adaptive operation of the system. First, an optimal operating trajectory is obtained using the deterministic optimal operation of the system; then, a decision variable and an independent variable are identified for the operating function, and a linear operating function is constructed. Finally, the parameters of the operating function are updated dynamically using the ensemble Kalman filter, forming adaptive operating rules. This procedure is applied in a case study of the Jinping I hydropower station along with the wind and photovoltaic power stations nearby. The result shows that in the validation period, the new adaptive operating rules achieve a power output increase of 645 and 53 million kW·h against the conventional and static rules, respectively. This demonstrates these new rules can adapt to the changing environment through tracking changes in the optimal operating trajectory.

Key words: hydro-wind-solar hybrid power system, changing environment, medium- and long-term operation, adaptive operating rule, ensemble Kalman filter