水力发电学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (6): 11-19.
• 水文水资源、水电规划及动能经济 • 上一篇 下一篇
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Abstract: As a large number of flood control and soil-water conservation projects have been constructed in the Haihe River Basin, the underlying surface conditions and the characteristics of the runoff yield and concentration are changed, which leads to the nonstationarity of the reservoir inflow flood time series. Hence it is very necessary to revise the previous design flood. In this paper, the annual flood peak discharge series and the annual maximum flood volume series of Wangkuai Reservoir, which lies in the Shahe, the south branch of the Daqing River, were used as the basic data. The mixed distribution method and the conditional probability distribution method were used to directly analyze the frequency of the non-stationary flood time series based on their respective change point diagnosis results. The design flood calculated with these two methods were compared to the 1985 design flood which was approved by the WRHPDGI (Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute) in 1985, and to the design flood calculated by the P-Ⅲ curve which considers the flood time series as stationary. The results reveal that the design values with different return periods are reduced to some extent compared with the 1985 design flood, with a decrease of about 15% to 30% for annual flood peak discharge, and about 5% to 30% for annual maximum flood volume; Compared with the P-Ⅲ curve results, the decrease of annual flood peak discharge and annual maximum flood volume(1-day and 6-day) are less than 10%, the decrease of annual maximum flood volume(3-day) is about 1% to 15% . The results may lay a basis for the revision of the design flood in the Daqing River Basin.
李 新,曾 杭,冯 平. 洪水序列变异条件下的频率分析与计算[J]. 水力发电学报, 2014, 33(6): 11-19.
LI Xin,ZENG Hang,FENG Ping. Flood frequency analysis considering variation in flood time series[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROELECTRIC ENGINEERING, 2014, 33(6): 11-19.
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