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水力发电学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 11-21.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20200302

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“一带一路”沿线国家水电发展状况与潜力

  

  • 出版日期:2020-03-25 发布日期:2020-03-25

Study on exploitation status and potential of hydropower in countries along the Belt and Road

  • Online:2020-03-25 Published:2020-03-25

摘要: 分析“一带一路”沿线水电发展状况及潜力,对推进沿线国家能源合作、共同打造命运共同体具有重要意义。本研究基于大量数据与资料,以六个区域分析和总结了“一带一路”沿线水电资源量与开发程度的时空分布特征。理论蕴藏量和技术可开发量在空间上东多西少,沿线大部分国家水电开发程度低于50%,且东低西高。近五年水电发电量整体呈增加或减少趋势的国家数量相当,东北亚和东南亚水电资源丰富且发电量增加趋势明显,开发潜力大。按照各国未开发量占总未开发量的比值,将沿线国家水电开发潜力划分为五级,其中一级和二级共16个国家,是未来水电开发的重点。最后,对沿线国家水电发展提出相应的建议,指出未来“一带一路”能源建设应适应不同国家的具体情况,加强交流、创新与合作。

关键词: “一带一路”, 水电能源, 开发潜力, 命运共同体

Abstract: It is of great significance to analyze the exploitation status and potential of hydropower in countries along the routes of the Belt and Road to promote energy cooperation and building a community with a shared future. This study analyzes and summarizes spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the hydropower resources and exploitation rates over six regions along the routes based on a large body of data. The results show that for hydropower resource, its theoretical potential and technically exploitable capacity decrease from the east to west, while its exploitation rate increases from the east to west and is lower than 50% in most countries. In the past five years, the number of countries with an increasing or decreasing hydropower output is equal. Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia have abundant hydropower resources, with an obvious increasing trend in hydropower generation and a great exploiting potential. This study suggests that the countries along the routes can be divided into five levels according to the ratio of their exploiting potential of hydropower to the total, and future efforts should be focused on the 16 countries at the first and second levels. We also suggest and emphasize that the strategy of energy development along the Belt and Road should adapt to the specific situations of different countries with more exchange, innovation and cooperation in the future.

Key words: Belt and Road, hydroelectric energy, exploiting potential, community with shared future

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