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水力发电学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (11): 1-14.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20181101

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山洪灾害预警研究进展与展望

  

  • 出版日期:2018-11-25 发布日期:2018-11-25

Advances and prospect of flash flood forecasting

  • Online:2018-11-25 Published:2018-11-25

摘要: 山洪灾害预警是当前世界各国防洪减灾研究的热点问题。基于国内外山洪灾害预警研究的总结分析,文章系统梳理了山洪灾害预警的技术内涵与关键环节,包括预警数据获取、预警模型计算、预警指标确定、预警不确定分析等四个方面。目前山洪灾害预警研究存在以下不足:多源预警数据融合分析有待加强;复杂下垫面条件下降雨径流关系研究不够深入;山洪灾害预警预报精度差;山洪灾害动态预警机制仍需完善。未来,攻克山洪灾害形成机理,构建山洪灾害立体感知体系预警系统,给出山洪灾害预警多指标的阈值区间,可作为山洪灾害预警发展的总体方向。

Abstract: Flash flood forecasting is a worldwide hot issue of flood control and disaster mitigation. Based on an analysis of previous research, this paper reviews its technical connotation and key aspects, including data acquisition, model calculation, index determination, and uncertainty analysis for the early warning of flash flood. In the previous studies of flash flood forecasting, we can find several shortcomings: the comprehensive analysis of multi-source warning data needs to be strengthened; the research on the rainfall-runoff relationship under complicated underlying surfaces is not deep enough; the accuracy of flash flood forecasts is still poor; how to improve the predictability of such forecasting needs further research. We suggest three directions for future studies: tackling the mechanism of flash flood formation, constructing a stereoscopic perception forecasting system of flash floods, and determining an index threshold of early flood warning.

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