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水力发电学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 1-10.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20180101

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特约论文:梯级水库群大坝风险防控设计研究

  

  • 出版日期:2018-01-25 发布日期:2018-01-25

Research on design of dam-break risks control for cascade reservoirs

  • Online:2018-01-25 Published:2018-01-25

摘要: 梯级水库群大坝风险标准、风险防控设计方法及设计安全指标体系,是流域安全管理的基础。在系统研究国内外风险标准的基础上,提出梯级水库群社会可接受风险标准为10-6/a,可容忍风险标准为10-5/a;基于现行工程设计方法、相对安全率和贝叶斯网络理论,提出了“安全系数-可靠指标-年计失效概率”三位一体的风险防控设计方法。针对梯级水库群中,坝高超过200 m、库容大于10亿m3,或其溃坝将导致下游1级大坝连溃的控制梯级,按照工程等级划分和风险防控功能,定义为特等工程。特等工程的风险控制标准,为年计失效概率(1.0 ~ 5.0)×10-8,可靠指标为4.45 ~ 4.7,制定了包括防洪标准、抗震标准、裕富超高及泄洪设施要求的风险设计指标体系。这一研究成果填补了特高坝工程设计安全标准的空白,对梯级水库群风险防控理论研究及设计方法的发展具有重要的借鉴和参考价值。

Abstract: The dam risk criteria, design methodology of risk control, and design safety index system of cascade reservoirs are essential to the safety management of a river basin. In this paper we systematically examine previous studies in China and overseas, and suggests an acceptable social risk criterion of 10-6/a and a tolerable social risk criterion of 10-5/a for cascade reservoirs. We also present a trinity design methodology of “safety factor - reliability index - annual failure probability” based on the current methods of project design, the theories of safety margin ratio, and the Bayesian network. According to its grading standard and risk control functions in the river basin, a hydropower project can be defined as a “special class project”, if it satisfies: dam height greater than 200 m and water storage capacity larger than 1 billion m3, or its dam break will cause the First Class dam break in the downstream. For this special class, we suggest a risk control standard: annual failure probability of (1.0-5.0) ×10-8 and reliability index of 4.45-4.70, and construct a system of risk design indexes including the design standards for flood control, seismic resistance, dam reserved free board, and flood discharging capacity. The results of this study would fill the gap in the standards for safety design of super-high dams over 200m high and help the research on risk control theories and design of cascade reservoirs.

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