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水力发电学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 22-33.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20170803

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基于扩展Budyko假设的季节径流变化归因分析

  

  • 出版日期:2017-08-25 发布日期:2017-08-25

Attribution analysis on seasonal river runoff based on extended Budyko hypothesis

  • Online:2017-08-25 Published:2017-08-25

摘要: 目前,许多研究在年尺度上量化气候变化与人类活动对径流的影响,而忽略了人类活动对年内径流过程的影响。本文以丰满二区流域为例开展研究,将年划分为灌溉季、湿季和干季三季,应用基于扩展Budyko假设的垂直分解法,区分量化各季气候变化与人类活动对径流的影响,并讨论了不同类型蓄水工程对湿季各月(7月、8月、9月)径流变化的贡献程度与作用形式。结果表明:在不同季,气候变化和人类活动的综合作用导致径流减少,但二者对径流的作用形式与影响量级都不同,人类活动在各季均引起径流减少,气候变化在湿季、干季导致径流减少,但在灌溉季导致径流增加。

Abstract: Many previous studies have quantified the impacts of climate change and human activities on annual river runoff neglected the contribution of human activities to seasonal runoff variation. This paper describes an extended decomposition method based on the Budyko hypothesis and distinction between three seasons: irrigation season, wet season, and dry season. We have applied this method to calculation of the climate change and human activities impacts on the river runoff of the Fengman sub-basin II in each of the seasons, and evaluated the contribution of water storage projects to runoff variation in wet season ( from July through September). The results show that runoff decreasing depends on the integrated effect of climate change and human activities and their individual effects are different in form and order of magnitude. Generally, human activities cause a decrease in runoff in all the seasons, while climate change causes a decrease in wet and dry seasons but an increase in irrigation season.

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