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水力发电学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (7): 55-64.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20170706

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基于模糊集合分析的汛期分期降雨极值分布研究

  

  • 出版日期:2017-07-25 发布日期:2017-07-25

Distribution of staged extreme rainfalls in flood season based on fuzzy set analysis

  • Online:2017-07-25 Published:2017-07-25

摘要: 分期设计洪水能够在保证水库防洪安全的前提下提高洪水资源利用率,而降雨是洪水形成的主导因素,降雨分期是分期设计洪水的前提和重要依据。本文以大伙房水库为研究对象,采用模糊集合法分析了水库的分期特征,通过可变模糊集的对立统一定理构建了前汛期、主汛期、后汛期的隶属函数,建立了基于模糊集合分析的汛期分期降雨极值拟合模型,探讨了水库各分期降雨极值分布规律。结果表明,Gumbel、P-III、Weibull、GEV 4种分布函数均适用于大伙房水库分期降雨极值分布,且以GEV分布为最优。模糊分期的主汛期设计暴雨均高于实际分期的主汛期设计暴雨,后汛期则正好相反,说明模糊分期极值拟合模型的设计成果更加有利于水库的防洪与兴利。

Abstract: Use of seasonal design flood can improve the utilization of flood resources while satisfying the reservoir safety requirement. Rainfall is the dominant factor in flood formation and hence its multi-stage calculation is a prerequisite and basis for calculating seasonal design flood. This paper presents a study on the distribution of staged extreme rainfalls in flood season based on fuzzy set analysis for the catchment of Dahuofang reservoir. We analyzed the flood season staged characteristics of the reservoir using a fuzzy set method, and constructed membership functions for pre-flood season, main flood season, and later flood season, by the theorem of the unity of opposites of variable fuzzy sets. Then, a staged extreme rainfall fitting model was developed, based on fuzzy set analysis, and the distribution patterns of extreme rainfalls in each stage of the reservoir is discussed. The results show that Gumbel, P-III, Weibull and GEV all are applicable to the distribution of extreme rainfalls over the study area, but the GEV function is optimal. The design rainfalls calculated by this fuzzy staging method is higher for main flood season than those by the actual staging but lower for later flood season, giving estimates favorable to the flood control and beneficial use of reservoirs.

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