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水力发电学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (7): 34-44.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20170704

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基于生态水文模型的无定河流域径流变化归因

  

  • 出版日期:2017-07-25 发布日期:2017-07-25

Attribution of discharge changes over Wuding River watershed using a distributed eco-hydrological model

  • Online:2017-07-25 Published:2017-07-25

摘要: 受到黄土高原气候变化和人类活动等因素影响,黄河流域中游河道径流在过去50年间有显著的下降趋势。此前的径流变化归因方法,未考虑气候变化通过影响植被生长进而对径流的间接影响。本文选择了位于黄土高原的无定河流域为研究区域,基于新发展的分布式生态水文模型CLM-GBHM,分别采用静态与动态植被两种模式模拟了1961—2012年的流域水文过程。径流变化归因分析结果显示,1972—2000年相对1961—1971年,单纯气候变化对径流减少的贡献为79.8%,而气候变化和植被生长共同贡献率降低为74.6%;2001—2012年相对1972—2000年,植被生长减小了单纯气候变化所导致的径流增加趋势,人类活动是对应时段径流减少的主导因素。这表明该流域植被生长对水文过程有较强的调节作用。

Abstract: During the past five decades, a significant decrease occurred in the river discharge of the middle Yellow River main stream mainly because of climate changes and human activities in the Loess Plateau. Previous studies on the attribution of river discharge changes usually focused on the lumped effects of climate changes and vegetation growth on hydrological processes, neglecting the contribution by the vegetation growth caused by climate changes. This paper analyzed the variation trends of several eco-hydrological variables through a case study of the Wuding River watershed. Two types of simulations, assuming static and dynamic modes of vegetation changes separately, were carried out during the period 1961-2012 using a newly developed physically-based eco-hydrological model, CLM-GBHM. Results show that relative to the 1961-1971 discharge, 79.8% of the decrease in the 1972-2000 discharge was contributed by climate change itself while 74.6% by climate change and vegetation growth. And relative to 1972-2000, vegetation growth over 2001-2012 reduced the increasing trend in river discharge that would be produced directly by climate change, thereby leaving human activities as the major factor in the discharge reduction. All this shows a buffer effect of vegetation growth in the Wuding River watershed.

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