水力发电学报
            首 页   |   期刊介绍   |   编委会   |   投稿须知   |   下载中心   |   联系我们   |   学术规范   |   编辑部公告   |   English

水力发电学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 90-100.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20170311

• 水力发电学报 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于CSRAM的引水隧洞施工进度风险分析

  

  • 出版日期:2017-03-25 发布日期:2017-03-25

Analysis on schedule risks of diversion tunnel construction based on CSRAM

  • Online:2017-03-25 Published:2017-03-25

Abstract: This paper presents an analysis on construction schedule risks of diversion tunnels using a correlated schedule risk analysis model (CSRAM) considering correlation between risks and correlation between activities and assuming uncertainty in the duration of the activities that cause the risks. In this model, the risks are identified and qualified and their probability distributions are estimated, using the method of work breakdown structure-risk breakdown structure (WBS-RBS). And sensitivity of schedule risks is analyzed by changing the bounds of risk factors in probability calculation. The model can overcome the lack of schedule indexes and these correlations and the neglect of risk probability distribution in analysis of schedule risks. Application to practical diversion tunnel construction shows that our method is effective and satisfactory in calculation of completion probability, critical path, and other critical risk factors of the construction projects subjected to various risk factors. Thus this CSRAM-based method would lay a theoretical basis for schedule control and risk management in diversion tunnel construction.

京ICP备13015787号-3
版权所有 © 2013《水力发电学报》编辑部
编辑部地址:中国北京清华大学水电工程系 邮政编码:100084 电话:010-62783813
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发  技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn