水力发电学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 90-100.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20170311
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Abstract: This paper presents an analysis on construction schedule risks of diversion tunnels using a correlated schedule risk analysis model (CSRAM) considering correlation between risks and correlation between activities and assuming uncertainty in the duration of the activities that cause the risks. In this model, the risks are identified and qualified and their probability distributions are estimated, using the method of work breakdown structure-risk breakdown structure (WBS-RBS). And sensitivity of schedule risks is analyzed by changing the bounds of risk factors in probability calculation. The model can overcome the lack of schedule indexes and these correlations and the neglect of risk probability distribution in analysis of schedule risks. Application to practical diversion tunnel construction shows that our method is effective and satisfactory in calculation of completion probability, critical path, and other critical risk factors of the construction projects subjected to various risk factors. Thus this CSRAM-based method would lay a theoretical basis for schedule control and risk management in diversion tunnel construction.
肖尧,钟登华,任炳昱,余佳,赵梦琦,区丽雯. 基于CSRAM的引水隧洞施工进度风险分析[J]. 水力发电学报, 2017, 36(3): 90-100.
XIAO Yao, ZHONG Denghua, REN Bingyu, YU Jia, ZHAO Mengqi, OU Liwen. Analysis on schedule risks of diversion tunnel construction based on CSRAM[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROELECTRIC ENGINEERING, 2017, 36(3): 90-100.
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链接本文: http://www.slfdxb.cn/CN/10.11660/slfdxb.20170311
http://www.slfdxb.cn/CN/Y2017/V36/I3/90
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